TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Guy Cecil, Chairman of Priorities USA
DATE: November 3, 2021
RE: Democrats Face Difficult but Surmountable Challenges Ahead of
the Midterms
Tuesday’s elections are a warning for all Democrats. With midterm elections just a year away,
we face a difficult set of challenges, some of our own making.
● Our congressional majorities depend on winning Senate and House seats that are much
more competitive than New Jersey and Virginia, giving us little room for error. The same
is true for key governors’ races and state legislative seats.
● While DC Democrats have spent weeks fighting each other, Republicans were focused on
mobilizing their base, generating record turnout and demonstrating an enthusiasm gap
that we must close.
● Republicans were successful at peeling away voters from the Biden coalition using
deceptive, divisive tactics, calling into question how we rebuild that coalition in 2022.
● Key polling indicators like presidential favorability, direction of the country, and who is
better on handling the economy and covid recovery have been moving in the wrong
direction.
● History is full of significant midterm election losses for the party in power.
On top of all of this, voters are frustrated, skeptical, and tired — of covid, of economic hardship,
of school closings, of higher prices and stagnant wages, of unaffordable prescription drugs and
health care and more.
This is not merely about ideology or which two candidates are on the
ballot. Without results (and effectively communicating those results), voters will punish the
party in power.
New polling from Priorities USA in key 2022 battleground states paints a similarly challenging
picture. Voter enthusiasm is relatively low among key voters, swing voters that supported
Democrats in the last two elections are open to voting Republican, and Democratic infighting is
cannibalizing any headlines about the progress we are making. This creates huge opportunities
for Republicans to focus on issues that drive their turnout and peel away swing voters.
There are now two roads ahead of us.
Down one is an endless circular firing squad, a lengthy and public fight over the Build Back
Better bill, finger pointing between “progressives” and “centrists,” arguments over whether to
focus on turnout or swing voters, and ultimately, losing.
The other road doesn’t guarantee success, but it gives us a fighting shot to win next year. This
week’s results and new polling from Priorities USA in key battleground states lays out the
beginning of a path to victory.
An analysis of our polling offers four key lessons that will guide our efforts:
● Democrats must prioritize infrequent and new voters who turned out for President Biden.
These programs must include early persuasion campaigns targeting those with little
partisan connection or long-term political interest. Without Donald Trump in office or on
the ballot, we will need an aggressive multi-pronged approach to win them over again.
● In most competitive races, turnout alone is not enough. We need to appeal to those
swing voters who supported Democrats in 2018 and 2020.
● The best defense is a good offense. The Democratic agenda is popular with swing
voters and new Biden voters and every Republican in Congress opposes it. We need to
relentlessly focus on building the middle class, supporting families, and protecting
democracy.
● If the headlines focus on Democratic infighting and issues driven by the Republican
Party, we will lose. Democrats need to deliver on their promises and drive a contrasting
campaign on it. Our argument can’t be limited to backwards-looking attacks on Donald
Trump.
Democrats must prioritize infrequent and new voters who turned out for President
Biden.
New and infrequent Biden voters aren’t reliable Democrats yet and we need to consolidate
their support with persuasion messages.
Infrequent or first-time 2020 voters who chose Joe Biden will play a decisive role in the 2022
midterms. These voters are less interested in politics, less enthusiastic about voting and less
polarized than Democratic “base voters.” Just because these voters look like the existing
Democratic coalition doesn’t mean they vote like them.
Our polling dove deep into what these infrequent and first-time Biden voters are thinking about
politics and elections.
While they lean heavily Democratic, with 83% definitely voting for or
leaning toward Democrats in the midterms, two in five of those represented by a Democrat in
the Senate have a neutral or no opinion of the incumbent, and 31% think it would be a good
thing if Republicans took over Congress. Yes, these voters lean toward Democrats but their
support is shallow. They are not ideological or partisan, so Democrats need to proactively win
them over in 2022.
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