MEXICO CITY (CN) — The second iteration of the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP 2.0) promises to return just as many or more asylum seekers from the U.S.-Mexico border as its antecedent when the program expands in the coming months.
The Biden administration was forced to restart the controversial program —also known as "Remain in Mexico" — in December after the U.S. Supreme Court declined to stay a federal court injunction mandating the reinstatement this past August.
So far only around 250 asylum seekers have been returned to Mexico under MPP 2.0, which first began in El Paso, Texas, and was expanded to San Diego this month.
While not alarming in and of itself, that number more or less tracks with the first months of the initial program under the administration of President Donald Trump, which went into effect in January 2019. By the summer of that year, as the program expanded to other parts of the border, the monthly numbers peaked at over 10,000 asylum seekers returned in a single month.
“In many ways, this is the calm before the storm,” said Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, policy counsel and border issues specialist at the American Immigration Council. "We should fully expect that things are going to get worse."
While no dates have been set for the expansion of MMP 2.0 to other cities on the border, the Biden administration announced it will eventually be applied in Calexico, California, Nogales, Arizona, and Eagle Pass, Laredo, and Brownsville, in Texas.
The U.S. Embassy in Mexico City reportedly told migrant activists and shelter administrators in Tijuana that the total number of daily MPP 2.0 returns to the city would be capped at 30. Basing projections on that statement, experts predict migrants shelters in Mexico will need to find the resources to feed, clothe, and house up to 6,500 returned asylum applicants each month once the program is in full swing.
Still, much like almost every aspect of the rebooted program, a cloud of uncertainty hangs over those predictions.
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