We're gonna get killed

Zogby poll October 27, 2010


OK, I get it.  Voters are disappointed. But why do they think the Republicans are the solution, rather than the problem?


Among those who say they have already voted, Republicans led, 52%-42%; which is a reversal from Oct. 25, when Democrats led with early voters, 48%-44%. Republicans continue to lead among those who say recent information has changed their opinion about the Congressional election, 53%-30%.


The key change is independent voters breaking Republican. 

In the Congressional race in 2010, for which party's candidate do you intend to vote--Democrat of Republican?  

Generic Ballot	Oct  7	Oct25	Oct 8	Oct 14	Oct 11	Oct 4	Sept 27	Sept 20	Sept 14	Aug 30	Aug 23
Republican	50%	48%	48%	49%	45%	43%	46%	43%	47%	43%	43%
Democrat	42%	43%	41%	40%	45%	43%	41%	44%	41%	41%	41%
Neither	3%	4%	3%	3%	4%	3%	4%	4%	3%	5%	3%
Not sure	5%	5%	9%	8%	6%	11%	10%	10%	10%	12%	13%

And they are disappointed with Obama

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama's job as President?

Obama Job Performance	Oct 27	Oct 25	Oct 18	Oct 14	Oct11	Oct 4	Sept 27	Sept 20	Sept 14	Aug 30	Aug 23	Aug 12	Aug 4	Jul 26
Approve	43%	47%	46%	44%	49%	46%	45%	49%	46%	44%	46%	43%	43%	46%
Disapprove	56%	53%	54%	56%	51%	53%	54%	51%	54%	56%	53%	56%	57%	53%
Not sure	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	1%	1%	<1%	1%

Al Franken: What's at Stake

This video of Sen. Franken's speech at the University of Minnesota with President Obama is excellent.

Washington, We Have a Problem | Politics | Vanity Fair

Like Gulliver in the grip of the Lilliputians

Todd Purdum - National Editor at Vanity Fair and long time New York times Reporter has an excellent piece in September's issue.  With Obama, as Jonathan Alter has observed "it's always 60 degrees".  In today's maelstrom would you want a hot head?  A guy (like the last one) so in the grip of passion that he went to war on demonstrably false grounds?


Discouraged?  I would blame the voters before I would blame Obama.  Here's the good news:  On` the day after' Barack Obama will still be President of the United States

How broken is Washington? Beyond repair? A day in the life of the president reveals that Barack Obama’s job would be almost unrecognizable to most of his predecessors—thanks to the enormous bureaucracy, congressional paralysis, systemic corruption (with lobbyists spending $3.5 billion last year), and disintegrating media. Inside the West Wing, the author talks toObama’s top advisers about the challenge of playing the Washington game, ugly as it has become, even while their boss insists they find a way to transcend it.

Here's Purdum's picture of life inside the White House: 

Washington, We Have a Problem | Politics | Vanity Fair

Pre-mortem: Poll: Independents siding with GOP - James Hohmann and Jim VandeHei - POLITICO.com

The question, of course, will be Why did independents go Republican?  Whatever stopped them from being Dems in the first place, I guess.
Poll: Independents siding with GOP - James Hohmann and Jim VandeHei - POLITICO.com

Yellow peril in conservative attack ad

James Fallows thinks that `the Chinese are coming!' TV spot below is non-chauvinistic, legitimate electoral play (a two minute
Gibbons-esque agit prop piece) - even though the facts it asserts are completely wrong.  The Chinese government in fact put construction of high speed inter-city rail at the heart of their anti-recession strategy.  

Chinese bullet trains - Wuhan to Guanzhou in 3 hours at 380 kmh

As Fallows notes "The ad has the Chinese official saying that America collapsed because, in the midst of a recession, it relied on (a) government stimulus spending, (b) big changes in its health care systems, and (c) public intervention in major industries -- all of which of course, have been crucial parts of China's (successful) anti-recession policy." 

Joe Sestak: Cleaning up the Republican Mess

Joe Sestak - who defeated Arlen Specter in the Democratic primary, is, pols say running very close to Republican Pat Toomey , a Congressman seeking, like Sestak, to take the Pennsylvania Senate seat once held by Specter.  Nice, cute, effective ad.

Education of a President - The Times Magazine interview

"The president who muscled through Congress perhaps the most ambitious domestic agenda in a generation finds himself vilified by the right, castigated by the left and abandoned by the middle. He heads into the final stretch of the midterm campaign season facing likely repudiation, with voters preparing to give him a Congress that, even if Democrats maintain control, will almost certainly be less friendly to the president than the one he has spent the last two years mud wrestling.

While proud of his record, Obama has already begun thinking about what went wrong — and what he needs to do to change course for the next two years. "

Peter Baker - The Education of a President, New York Times Magazine, October 12, 2010

Peter Baker interviewed President Obama.  It is painful to read paragraphs like this one, but it reflects the difficulties he and we face in governing this country.  Bob Herbert in today's paper returns to his theme "it's jobs and the economy, stupid".  I am more inclined to Obama's self-analysis: we campaign in poetry, govern in prose.  But the prose hasn't sold as well as the poetry.  

That's in the First Amendment? Christine O'Donnell

There isn't a lot of fun to be had for Democrats so far in this election season.  So thank the goddess for Christine O'Donnell. Yes, Christine, separation of church and state...That's in the First Amendment - the very first one:

Amendment I

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.

In favor of deficit spending

Lately I have spent a lot of time fighting despair at the prospect of the widely forecast rout of Democrats in the Congressional elections, and the "common sense" rants about government spending under Obama - as Republicans in Congress stood as the principal obstacle to spending the kind of money that might have jump-started growth.  Of course the big problem is that we don't have the Chinese Communist Party on our side.  They know how to do stimulus spending (40 high speed inter-city rail projects).  But that's for another day.

For today - thanks to Paul Krugman - here is the basic picture - spending continues in normal growth trendline but income has plummeted due to collapse in the private sector.  So - contrary to people like Niall Ferguson who say government stimulus will just lead people to buy gold and Chinese securities - it is clear that government spending is needed to create jobs - such as the (too small) $50b infrastructure program the Republicans refuse to support.  The short term deficit is now about $1.3 trillion.  That is why the Fed is printing money.  But if we really want to spur growth we have to make direct investments - such as Obama proposes.  We can if we let the Bush tax cuts above $250k expire - and use the revenue generated to put people to work.  VOTE DEMOCRATIC!

Thomas Friedman: Welcome to Tea Party America. Think small and carry a big ego.

Thomas Friedman - not a favorite of mine - has got it right here about our small bore problem: small-bore intellectual scope, small-bore approach to problem solving. He stuns a Singapore National University dean with the news that Obama's proposal for "eight innovation hubs" (to solve the world's biggest energy problems) is stymied by Congress's refusal to fund them at $25 million/each. You must mean Billions, says the dean. But NO....

Op-Ed Columnist - Build ’Em and They’ll Come - NYTimes.com

John Zogby - The 'Whoa, slow it down' election

I like John Zogby. He is a political realist and a careful pollster. Below is a link to his recent post on the BBC website. He concludes:

The voters, many of whom see trillions of dollars being spent before they can see the return on their investment, will say: "Whoa. Slow it down."

They will not vote to reject the president or to reward the Republicans. They will want to repeat their message of 2008: "More problem-solving and consensus building, please."

This approach would enable Obama to achieve more and would soften the image of Republicans.

If both parties continue along current hyper-partisan path, look for a third party doing real damage to both in 2012.

If they show that they can solve problems by working together they will limit the damage.

For Obama, the best possible scenario is to have both parties chastened and running for their very lives.

BBC News - The 'Whoa, slow it down' election

Iran, the Paper Tiger - NYTimes.com

Roger Cohen is the most level-headed contemporary commentator on the Mid-East. He points out that despite alarmist rants about Iran its leaders instinct for self-preservation will prevent them from actually building a nuclear bomb.

Op-Ed Columnist - Iran, the Paper Tiger - NYTimes.com

SCOTUS: Court to consider liability for DA’s offices on Brady violations : SCOTUSblog

42 U.S.C. 1983 provides a cause of action for state policies that deny citizens rights under the Constitution and laws. John Thompson alleges that the New Orleans District Attorney's failure to train prosecutors in their obligations under Brady v. Maryland (to provide the defense with all exculpatory material) caused him to be wrongfully convicted of robbery and murder.  He recovered a verdict and an equally divided Fifth Circuit en banc affirmed.

Is this consistent with the common law  principle of absolute prosecutorial immunity from suit extended to claims under 42 USC 1983 as enunciated emphatically in Imbler v. Pachtman (1976)?  Or will it prove to be the vindication of Justice Byron "Whizzer" White who concurred in the result but warned:

I write, however, because I believe that the Court's opinion may be read as extending to a prosecutor an immunity broader than that to which he was entitled at common law; broader than is necessary to decide this case; and broader than is necessary to protect the judicial process. Most seriously, I disagree with any implication that absolute immunity for prosecutors extends to suits based on claims of unconstitutional suppression of evidence, because I believe such a rule would threaten to injure the judicial process and to interfere with Congress' purpose in enacting 42 U.S.C. § 1983, without any support in statutory language or history.

The Thompson case is one in a line of § 1983 cases in which state entities' failure to train  evidences an actionable  "deliberate indifference" to the rights of citizens . In an amicus brief  a group of law school criminal justice and legal ethics centers argues that the prosecutor's duty to disclose exculpatory evidence is so complex  that without training constitutional violations are inevitable, and deliberate indifference can thus be shown.


The case is competently presented by Jessica Fitts, a Harvard law student, writing for ScotusBlog:

Argument preview: Court to consider liability for DA’s offices on Brady violations : SCOTUSblog

"I'm not a witch...I'm you" - Christine O'Donnell clears things up

We don't need Sara Benincasa, or Kristin Wiig on SNL to caricature Christine O'Donnell as today's "I believe in Genie" candidate for the United States Senate.  we've got Christine to do it herself/  Here's her first ad - a classic:

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