Sunday, June 24, 2012

Healthcare: the mandate stands

Despair is the reigning mood among the liberal commentariat, witness the usually optimistic about America James Fallows who laments we are witnessing a slow motion coup, Michael Tomasky is ready to unload on Obama for insufficiently fierce denunciation of the anti-ACA  Supreme Court majority. Ivy League con law profs are hedging their bets - saying they are pro-ACA but predicting the majority rejects the mandate. The most revealing is the 57% of former Supreme Court law clerks and advocates who predict the mandate will lose. That is pretty close to a coin toss. So here is my hazard, which I dared to post on Jonathan Bernstein's A Plain Blog About Politics:
There is an election in five months. If the five Republican judges are conservative jurists as they often proclaim they will abide the election results. I predict the mandate stands by 7 - 2 vote, only Scalia and Thomas dissenting. - GWC

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