by Jonathan Bernstein // Bloomberg News
***Whether the election is ultimately very important beyond turning out one Democrat for another, however, doesn’t really depend on what actually happened.
Various groups will now try to convince House Democrats that this earthquake was caused by whatever cause would help their faction. So any group supporting policies Ocasio-Cortez ran on will argue that the victory revolved around those. Socialist and very liberal Democrats will claim that this result vindicates their argument for having more influence in the party. Mainstream liberals, however, may instead warn of the danger to all members who neglect their district (or at least who duck debates).
If one of those explanations catches on, Democratic politicians will adjust their behavior accordingly to avoid suffering the same fate. That’s why, for Democratic party actors, it’s worth fighting over. If, for example, Democrats wind up believing the cause was ideology, they’ll shift to more extreme policy positions to survive; if, instead, they interpret the result as an endorsement of running candidates who match a district's demographics, that will help some future candidates and hurt others.
The size of the effect isn’t easy to predict — but I’d guess the surprise nature of the upset in New York will probably make the explanation for it more influential.
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