Friday, November 11, 2016

Why Trump Won - And Clinton Lost - And What It Could Mean for the Country and the Parties

 We of course were horrified by Trump's racism, xenophobia, rudeness, tough guy bullying, etc. John Judis has a detailed, sobering analysis of why Trump's appeal was so strong.  And his prospects for having a successful presidency. - gwc

Update: Theda Skocpol, the Harvard political scientist,has promptly rebutted Judis, saying, inter alia, that Judis engaged in:
(a) lot of creative argument that HRC was a poor candidate because voters did not hear the economic message you wish she had delivered. Two problems: national polls showed that voters said she was better than Trump on plans for the economy. That is a small problem, however, because virtually no real policy discussion occurred in this election. Second, huger problem: HRC actually won the national aggregate election you are imagining in the TPM piece by a whopping 2.5 million or more votes. If America were what you measure here, she would be President-Elect...

Why Trump Won - And Clinton Lost - And What It Could Mean for the Country and the Parties
by John Judis  //Talking Points Memo

Trump is a strange duck. While some of his stands on trade, immigration (without the incendiary rhetoric), infrastructure spending and burden sharing by American allies go back decades, his opposition to abortion or to mandated universal health insurance appear to have been adopted in order to win the Republican nomination. If Trump can find a way to keep Republicans in line on Medicare and social security (which he promised to protect) and compromise with the Democrats on Obamacare– and George W. Bush and Ronald Reagan showed that a Republican president can get a Republican Congress even on “big government” proposals – Trump could have a successful presidency. And his majority in Washington could last four years, or even more, given that Republicans have an extremely favorable playing field in the 2018 Senate elections.
But if Trump tries to govern like he campaigned, he will split his own party, and spark a revolt among the opposition that could produce chaos in the country. Which Trump will appear remains to be scene, but for the moment one can only hope that it is the conciliator of his victory speech, and not the incendiary agitator of his campaign that will enter the Oval Office next January.

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